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All the Top 4 and Bottom 4 permutations ahead of today’s EPL showdown

There is still plenty at stake at both ends of the Premier League table heading into the final gameweek. Liverpool and Manchester City have already secured Champions League football for next season but only two of Leicester, Chelsea and Manchester United will join them.

Leicester have been sucked into the fight for a top-four finish after some woeful results post-lockdown. The Foxes had an eight point lead on fifth when football was suspended and now enter the final day of the season outside of the top four by a point. They host third-place United on Sunday, while Chelsea welcome high-flying Wolves.

At the opposite end of the table, Norwich are already resigned to finishing the 2019/20 campaign bottom after a remarkable run of nine straight defeats but Watford, Bournemouth and Aston Villa are all fighting for their lives to claim the final place above the bottom three. Villa (-26) are currently above Watford (-27), and out of the relegation zone, on goal difference after their shock 1-0 win over Arsenal coincided with Watford’s damaging 4-0 defeat to Manchester City in midweek. Bournemouth, meanwhile, are three points back on their relegation rivals but have the same goal difference as Watford.

With so much at play, it can actually be confusing working out exactly what your team is required to do to achieve their objective. Here we will run through all possible permutations on the final day of the season for deciding the top four and relegation, starting with the former.

TOP FOUR RACE

THE RACE FOR TOP 4

 

Post Lock-down Form

Man United

3rd
63 pts
+28 GD

Chelsea

4th
63 pts
+13 GD

Leicester City

5th
62 pts
+28 GD

Form DWWWWDWD WWLWWLWL DDLWDLWL
Form Rank 2nd 6th 14th
Goals Scored 20 16 9
Goals Conceded 6 15 11
Goal Difference +14 +1 -2

IF Man Utd beat Leicester
A win of any kind for Manchester United away to Leicester will secure third place no matter what Chelsea do.

Defeat for Leicester would see them miss out on the top four. They can mathematically finish sixth but they have a +15 better goal difference than Wolves heading into the final game.

IF Man Utd and Leicester draw
A draw would be enough for Manchester United to finish in the top four but they would drop down from third to fourth if Chelsea win against Wolves.

A draw would only be good enough for Leicester to finish fourth if Chelsea lose at home to Wolves due to their superior goal difference over Frank Lampard’s side.

IF Man Utd lose to Leicester
Man Utd could still secure a top four finish on Sunday even with defeat to Leicester but they would need Wolves to win at Chelsea to claim fourth.

A win for Leicester would see Brendan Rodgers’ side return to the top four and qualify for the Champions League. In order to finish third they would need to better Chelsea’s result against Wolves.

IF Chelsea beat Wolves
Chelsea will secure a top four finish if they beat Wolves at home on Sunday. They can only get third if they better Manchester United’s result at Leicester.

IF Chelsea draw with Wolves
A point for Chelsea would be enough to finish in the top four regardless of Manchester United and Leicester’s result but they would only claim fourth.

IF Chelsea lose to Wolves
Chelsea can lose at home to Wolves and still finish fourth but would need Manchester United to win away at Leicester.

THE RELEGATION BATTLE

THE RACE FOR SURVIVAL

 

Post Lock-down Form

Aston Villa

17th
34 pts
-26 GD

Watford

18th
34 pts
-27 GD

Bournemouth

19th
31 pts
-27 GD

Form DLDLLLWDW DLLLWWLL LLLLDWLL
Form Rank 15th 17th 18th
Goals Scored 6 7 8
Goals Conceded 10 17 17
Goal Difference -4 -10 -9

IF Aston Villa beat West Ham
Aston Villa would only be guaranteed safety with a win against West Ham if Watford fail to beat Arsenal. If Watford also win, Villa winning margin can be one less than Watford’s, therefore finishing the season level on goal difference, but Dean Smith’s side would still stay up on goals scored.

IF Aston Villa draw with West Ham
Aston Villa will only avoid relegation with a point on the final day of the season if Watford do not beat Arsenal.

IF Aston Villa lose to West Ham
Aston Villa can still avoid relegation with defeat to West Ham but would require Bournemouth not beating Everton and Watford losing to Arsenal. If Aston Villa and Watford both lose, then Villa margin of defeat can not be greater than two goals compared to Watford’s otherwise they will trade places in the table on goal difference.

IF Watford beat Arsenal
Watford would avoid relegation with a win over Arsenal if Villa lose or draw to West Ham. If Villa win, Watford’s winning margin would need to be 2+ compared to Villa’s.

IF Watford draw with Arsenal
A draw would be enough for Watford to beat the drop but only if Aston Villa lose to West Ham.

IF Watford lose to Arsenal
Watford could still stay up if they lose to Arsenal but would require Bournemouth failing to beat Everton and Villa’s margin of defeat to be at least two goals greater than their own.

IF Bournemouth beat Everton
Bournemouth must win to have any chance of beating the drop. They would also need Villa and Watford to both lose their respective matches. They are relegated if they lose or draw.

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